Tag Archives: North Korea

Politics 2020, Trump

And on the other hand…

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Prudence has worked for 2 weeks on a response to the Democratic convention.  It is a topic that has piled up words faster and deeper than any other… and it’s not finished.  Whether it’s ever posted is a question.  Who on Earth would read it?

So, a lighter analysis of 2020 politics is in order.  Might be fun.

There are two distinct sets of philosophies vying for power in this presidential year – no news, there.  Summed up, one is generally in favor of our constitutional system of distributed power, installed as governance for the first time in 1789; one is in thrall to ultimate government control over the economy and not just the economy, but control over individuals: how they live, what medicines they are permitted – or MUST – take and how they educate their children and about what.

One recognizes that America succeeds within a culture that is worth strengthening and imparting to succeeding generations; one appears anxious to displace American culture and replace it with race-based socialism.  What has this to do with each of us?  Whichever philosophy wins the 2020 election is going to have a direct impact on the lives of many – not all, but many Americans.  It will also affect the lives of millions of people in other countries.  There aren’t many election decisions when that is true.  Why will it be so?

In the event that Trump is re-elected, and we do, historically, tend to re-elect presidents if they have not failed economically, primarily, but not always… in that event there are significant risks to both our culture and our economy – affecting most of us, but not all.  The forces arrayed to stop Trump in his first term will not have given up.  If anything they will be more sharply aimed with greater destructive intent.  It is sad but Prudent to consider the possibility that he will be assassinated.  His determination to undo the deep state and eventually the economic oligarchy has not abated, and will be sharpened, as well.

The upset to our culture will be significant, much like the Kennedy assassination that began a long process of distrust of government and the decades of sex, drugs… and rock-and-roll, but I repeat myself.  It opened the door to Johnson, the Great Society’s 60-year erosion of our family-centered culture, and led to the Viet-Nam War and to Richard Nixon, whose removal from power changed politics – and the media – forever.  It is impossible to predict the upheavals that would follow an assassination, but none would be positive from a Prudent point of view.

Trump’s re-election is perceived as dangerous by many, and will expose him and his family to danger.

If, on the other hand, Biden is dragged across the finish line in November, there are significant risks to both our culture and our economy – affecting most of us, but not all.  The radically left forces that have grasped the philosophy of the Democrat Party will be vindicated even as they celebrate their relatively cheap victory over tradition and constitutionalism.  Elements of the “Green new Deal” will be proposed for legislation almost immediately, as will proposals on how to pay “reparations” to some amorphous group of non-whites.  Green energy, so called, will be sold as an infrastructure plan; money in the defense budget will be diverted to pay for part of it.  “Climate change is an existential threat.”

Sexual aberration will be further codified and given taxpayer support for any treatments or operations needed.  Laws defending sexual identities and how everyone must accommodate them, will become more strict and widely enforced.  Public safety and policing in general will be softened, and sanctuary status allowed where municipally claimed or, God forbid, state-claimed.  The nullification of federal laws will become rampant.  It is hard to predict whether rioting and anti-capitalist / anti-white destruction of urban centers will continue.  Those who have permitted it in 2020 will also feel vindicated and their anti-Americanism rewarded; it’s possible.

Should Trump win and survive, there are positive changes he will promulgate, and among these are immigration enforcement and the eradication of “sanctuary” status everywhere.  There is the distinct possibility that riots will continue, but Trump will feel vindicated by re-election, and will more readily impose states of emergency or even martial law to stop them firmly.  This is a danger to everyone should martial law become acceptable for solving policing problems.  At first it will be welcomed, but it is at least extra-legal and a terrible precedent and habit.

The reactions of China, North Korea, Iran and, interestingly, Pakistan to the re-election of Trump, are hard to pin down.  Xi Jinping of China hates Trump for constantly calling out China over the Covid virus release, if not for several other reasons.  His desire is to embarrass Trump so as to put him in his place, as it were.  Xi naturally perceives his China as destined for global hegemony and sees Trump as his biggest impediment.  Trump must lose face for the world to recognize China’s ascendance.  This could take the form of North Korean provocation to near hot war with China’s declaration of support for North Korea including full military force, forcing humiliation on South Korea and the United States.  Many alliances will be strained or broken if Trump backs down or appears to.

Pakistan, particularly with the conclusion of a much anticipated “peace” treaty with the Taliban in Afghanistan, may be encouraged, again by China, to resume clandestine and, perhaps, direct operations against India.  All 3 states are nuclear armed.  China has had hot incidents with India, most recently in 2020.  It could serve China’s interests to see India tied down in the mountains of Kashmir, and to see the United States take India’s side.  This would provide opportunities for China to act aggressively elsewhere.  Whereas Trump has moved from treaty to agreement with abandon, re-making trade and other agreements to benefit the United States as he wished, in his second term he will be severely tested by China.

What would world leaders do with Biden in the White House?  He has shown himself willing to bribe and take bribes from other countries, as has his “buddy,” Obama.  He has supported softening relations with China for decades.  Would he suddenly be tough?  Doubtful.  He has shown himself unwilling to denounce “Black Lives Matter” or the rioting in several cities.  He appears to like top-down directives from government and would lock down the economy a second time if “experts” told him to.  The only bold moves he has described for his administration have concerned climate change and the green new deal… plus raising taxes.  For middle-class Americans, the Biden agenda, distorted by socialists, is unpleasant to contemplate.

As George Soros, evil globalist, recently stated, “The 2020 election will affect the entire world.”  Be Prudent when you vote.

Foreign Policy, Politics 2017, Trump

RUMORS OF WAR

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There are wars and rumors of war. How pleasant the last year of Ronald Reagan’s term appears, looking back. The Soviet Union was falling apart, the economy was in good shape, there was no ISIS, the Middle East was relatively calm, commodity markets were “under control,” so to speak, Syria, Libya, Venezuela and even the East Coast of Africa, Iraq and Iran were comparatively un-troublesome. Nicaragua was yanked back from Communism, Chile restored free elections, casting off Pinochet’s military police state (CIA -created), and American ships were still welcome in the Philippines. Thankfully, the senior George Bush defeated Michael Dukakis for president. Desert Storm and Bill and Hillary Clinton were yet to burden the polity.

Read the history of the ‘80s and things were anything but calm and peaceful. Nelson Mandela was still in jail, Robert Mugabe was firmly installed as “president” of Zimbabwe, and Hosni Mubarak was in his first decade of his never-untroubled leadership of Egypt and rough alliance with the U. S. Africa was in turmoil and many were starving, there, while tribal racism threatened millions. Argentina barely functioned with double digit inflation, yet decided to invade the “Falklands/Malvinas” to “reclaim” its sovereignty, based as much on proximity as on history. The U. K. decided under Thatcher, to re-take them. Ronald Reagan easily subverted the Monroe Doctrine to help his friend, Maggie, sink the General Belgrano.

Typically we try to believe that politics creates war and the conditions for war, but we can’t quite succeed at that. While war may be a political tool, it rarely rewards the party or leader in power in the intended way. On the other side of the mirror, however, it can be observed that war often creates politics – in fact, not just often, but generally – in that militarism is easily equated with patriotism and tends to divide the body politic along patriotic lines. One cannot hide from the truth that neither the body politic nor the nations at war are generally benefited. Individual politicians or their party… maybe.

Now, what? A supposedly “America first” presidential candidate (meaning to a degree: America only) has been turned in the span of 5 months to a president willing to view the world like a so-called “neo-Con.” Abruptly, acts of war – missiles into Syria, super-bomb into Afghanistan, threats of hot responses to North Korean “provocations” – are deemed useful internationally. Supposedly, this turn-about and its apparent unpredictability of the new president, will move China to change its policies toward North Korea; will cause Russia to pull back from its prior stance in Syria, and possibly in Ukraine and Georgia. Even Iran’s theocrats will quake at the threats of Donald Trump since we have been willing to take some actions against people or things that have almost no chance of retaliation.

Perhaps we should bomb Venezuela because the government there is starving its people and being mean.

Sudan and Zimbabwe are worth at least some cruise missiles, aren’t they? How demeaning it is to choose Syria… Syria! Sudan has at least as crappy a government as Syria! We live in a strange nation growing stranger.

Americans think, many of us, that the U. S. is pure and well-intentioned and very misunderstood by all the nations or groups that distrust us and wish to kill us. Our global deployment of military activities: 156 countries in a recent estimate, is for humanitarian aid and economic development. Well, that’s right – economic development of somebody.

Maybe it’s necessary. Multiple administrations have thought so. The “Truman Doctrine” of containing Communism has morphed into the unspoken – dare we say, secret – doctrine of containing everybody. The World’s policeman, indeed.

Well, say the thoughtful ones, if not us, then who? China? Russia? God forbid! Believe us, they thoughtfully pronounce, you don’t want to live in a world that’s not “led” by the United States. Perhaps not.

Money talks. Our beneficial “Petro-dollar” scheme buttressed by Saudi Arabia has permitted the U. S. to borrow and spend in astronomical quantities, to the degree that our worldwide military adventures have been “free,” sort-of. We have outspent our income – the largest income in the world to boot – for 50 years, by creating unlimited debt. Maybe it is completely fair that we “protect” the world with its own money. After all, it costs us only the interest – and a few thousand of our very best men and women. At least during this election cycle.

So, Mr. President, what are we going to stir up? It’s one thing to risk your own people, quite another to risk most of South Korea. Or Japan. Attacking the North Koreans can never be done with clear knowledge of all of their capabilities. What if they have pre-positioned a couple of nukes next to the DMZ? Or just offshore of South Korea? How many “South” Koreans are really “North” Koreans? Some, for sure.

And, then, there ARE the 30,000 or so Americans watching the DMZ from the South who are some sort of “trip wire” in the event North Korea starts an invasion. That must be a comfort. Most likely, if the North does decide to make a move, it won’t start at the DMZ, it will start well behind it, in Seoul. Then what shall the 30,000 do? Invade the North? That’s not a plan, either. The North has many, many more troops and artillery arrayed on their side.

If the North moves it will be all or nothing – do or die. They must know that Hell will shortly find them if they start anything. By the same token, if the U. S. starts something, the North must either fold its tent and retreat or, again, go all out with everything they have – they’ve sort-of talked themselves into it.

Oh, Mr. Trump, what are you going to do? You risk the South at the very least. Recent endeavors show that there are not enough bombs to deliver victory without protracted ground action. Do you really think China will allow the decimation of its handy cat’s paw? Or will Russia, for that matter? Who will overnight become whose friend if things “go hot?”

Finally, like abused children, North Koreans will not abandon their homeland or their dear leader. I think you have not contemplated the potential of a new Asian war long enough, Mr. T. You’ve not been in office long enough: and there can be only two terms.