How unfortunate it is… No!

How SAD it is… to be writing a post that Prudence hopes will be – can be – read later than September first of 2022.  Does that sound extreme?  The worries of a foolish patriot?  Maybe YOU are not paying attention.

Nancy Pelosi, relatively un-American Speaker of the House for only the crassest, most selfish reasons (those who have repeatedly voted her into the Speakership have always done so for their own, temporal, financial, re-election benefits and not those of their constituents) has decided to “visit” our Asian “friends,” indeed, leaving on the trip today, July 30, 2022.  Prudence hopes that this date does not mark the beginning of the end of the United States’ independence.

Part of her itinerary, perhaps for some good reason that escapes the grasp of most thoughtful observers, was announced to include a visit to Taiwan, an island nation with a most unusual history, coveted by Communist China since Chiang Kai-Shek fled the mainland at the end of the Communist Revolution.  The communists, in keeping with their world views, intend to fully absorb Taiwan, even as they have absorbed artificial islands they’ve created above various reefs in the South China Sea.

For several decades known as the island of Formosa, from a name bestowed by Portuguese explorers, Taiwan has never been a comfortable fit with the rest of Chinese Dynasties, experiencing numerous rebellions, particularly by indigenous Taiwanese, mostly populating the mountainous central spine of the island.  “Formosa” even existed for a few months as an independent Republic, following the Sino-Japanese War, in 1895.  Japanese rule also didn’t last very long.  Until the Nationalist Chinese under Chiang Kai-shek invaded and dominated the island in 1949, there had never been solid Chinese control of Taiwan (“Taoian” to its natives).  During the mid-1600’s the Dutch East India Company fought Han Chinese repeatedly for control of shipping and trade on the Pescadores islands near Taiwan, and control of Taiwan, itself.  They, too, were driven out.

All in all, control of Taiwan has only in the past 70 years been Chinese, albeit Nationalists.  The Communist mainland government has at least as legitimate a claim as the Nationalists, having defeated the Nationalists in 1949.  Only the support, explicit and implicit, of the United States, strong allies of the Nationalists against the Japanese in WW-II, has prevented Communist China (“PRC”) from taking over.  U. S. affinity for democratic republican governments, and for the strategic value of Taiwan specifically against the PRC, and our virtual economic and military dependence on imports from BOTH the PRC and Taiwan, forces the U. S. to attempt continued threading of the needle between the two nations.

China has made its intention to take over Taiwan clear; the U. S. has replied in muddled, ill-defined terms of “support” or “defense” of Taiwan.  Under Joe Biden, who always seems to back down when pressed by the PRC, China may perceive that there will never be a better opportunity to make a strike on Taiwan.  This should make everyone who voted for Biden for President and those who intentionally covered up his corrupt connections to the Chinese Communist Party, ashamed of their role in weakening the U. S. against the only country/empire that can not only replace the U. S. as the dominant force in the world, but, should we back down on Taiwan, push us out of the Far East as a trusted ally for anyone.

What are the possibilities if Nancy DOES stop off – or attempt to – in Taiwan?  None looks good, but we need to look around the world for other conditions in the summer of 2022 to understand the list of possible consequences.

China is watching the Russian crimes against Ukraine very carefully.  What has ”the West” done to counter the Russians?  Did NATO – the U. S. in particular – STOP the Russians?  Well, no, we shrank back when Russia rattled its nuclear weapons.  We have provided lots of weapons, not always timely, but eventually, and we appear to be content to let Ukranians die in their own defense.  The U. S. does not appear to be ready to die alongside them.  There is no particular reason why the U. S. would have the will to do anything different for the Taiwanese… at least, that is likely the logical deduction of the Chinese.

Then their question has to be: “If we attack Taiwan, will the U. S. do anything differently from what they’ve done for Ukraine?”  One wonders if anyone in OUR country knows the answer to that question.

But, the Chinese are both cautious and operating on a longer schedule than biennial elections in the United States.  Somehow the visit to Taiwan by the American Speaker of the House has presented a golden opportunity to China.  If a few blusters by the CCP can keep her from visiting, there is something to learn about U. S. resolve.  If she does visit, that is also something to learn.

But, but, but… what if she takes the challenge and decides to attempt to land on Taiwan in the face of the PRC’s telling her – and us – that she can’t go there without PRC permission?  Will the Communists perform their show of force as threatened?  Just as Pelosi may feel that she has to go to Taiwan, the Chinese may feel that they have to carry out their threats.  Now, Chinese fighters and U. S. fighters are in the same airspace with Chinese pilots acting aggressively.  One of them, or more, slides within the defined safe zone of the Speaker’s plane and Americans fire a warning shot to back them off.  The Chinese, who already threatened to fire warning shots in the run-up to the conflict, fire their own warning shots but an American plane, if not the Speaker’s plane, is hit.  The Americans shoot AT the offending Chinese plane and it is forced down or the pilot is forced to eject.

Talk about supply chain interruptions.  The Chinese could invade Taiwan as soon as the Speaker lands, or sooner!  Too bad if Americans are hurt or die.  The U. S. sinks an aircraft carrier.  It’s going to be a very difficult Christmas.

Do we even know what we are doing – the U. S. Navy that is firing people for not accepting those dangerous and useless mRNA injections?

Or, the Speaker decides to not visit Taiwan.  Everyone is all smiles as she returns to the U. S., but the end of U. S. enforced “freedom of the seas” is upon us, and history will have changed for a century or more, all to America’s disfavor.  This is a real pickle.  The Chinese could decide at that point that the U. S. is comprised of wimps and LGBTQx+ people who are too confused to fight for our country, and certainly too afraid to fight for any other: Taiwan is invaded.  Forty countries will abruptly stop playing nice with the U. S. and begin ignoring dollars.  Life becomes extremely unpleasant inside our borders.  Even welfare may have to be cut back!  God forbid.